Economics Bloggers See Rain Clouds Ahead

Mark Marich

Each quarter, the country’s top economics bloggers share their opinions on the U.S. economy – and the most recent results aren’t favorable. After a somewhat sunnier outlook earlier this year, the dark clouds are rolling in on the horizon. According to the second quarter Kauffman Economic Outlook, 85 percent of respondents view current economic conditions as “mixed” or “facing recession,” an increase of 8 percent from first quarter.

“Recent economic data confirm what economics bloggers have been saying for months: These are uncertain times with stagnant growth and unyielding unemployment levels,” said Tim Kane, the survey’s director and a senior scholar at the Kauffman Foundation. “With the unemployment rate jumping to 9 percent and half a million new jobless claims, the verdict is in. If a double-dip recession is to be avoided, it might be time to listen to some of the policies the bloggers have been suggesting as well.”

What are those policies? The second-quarter survey respondents support extending debt limit and reducing regulatory fees on new firm formation.

Other research highlights include:

  • The respondents continue their strong belief that the government is too involved in the U.S. economy, with 84 percent in favor of reducing regulatory burdens and fees on new firm formation.
  • Projecting three years ahead, economics bloggers expect global output, inflation and interest rates to rise faster than anything else. Opinion remains split about expectations of higher poverty and inequality levels.
  • When asked to evaluate other policy proposals, 86 percent also favored trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama, and 81 percent supported extending the debt limit.

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