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Uncertainty About the Economy Among Bloggers

Mark Marich

What are leading economics bloggers thinking lately? The Kauffman Foundation has once again collected the views of more than 200 of these specialized bloggers in a mid-July survey. Here are some highlights:

  • Overall opinion about the economy has shifted sharply negative since the previous quarter. Sixty-eight percent of economics bloggers who responded described the economy’s overall condition as "mixed," with the rest split three to one toward an assessment of "weak" rather than "strong."
  • Expectations of global growth are more than double the projection for U.S. incomes.  Yet only one of the 68 respondents supports a "tax on the product of foreign labor," a policy proposed by Andy Grove in a recent Bloomberg Businessweek commentary.
  • Bloggers are frustrated with Congress, yielding a grade point average of 0.8 on a four-point scale, which is roughly half the grade point given to Wall Street firms.
  • The bloggers expect the U.S. budget deficit to grow stronger than any other variable over the next three years. They also see higher poverty (doubled from second-quarter expectations) and inequality levels in the United States, meager stock market growth, and a slight decline in U.S. competitiveness.
  • A majority (57 percent) believe conditions for small business in particular are "bad" or "very bad."

The third Quarterly Outlook also features questions about the equity premium pension model, the viability of green energy and electric cars, and the outlook for dividends and capital gains and estate tax repeal.

To access the survey findings, methodology and list of respondents, click here.


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